Satellite images have revealed that Venezuela is expanding its military bases near the border with Guyana, while also deploying forces to the jungle frontier.

These actions come amidst escalating threats from President Nicolás Maduro regarding the potential annexation of the oil-rich neighbor.

Despite Maduro’s assurances during mediation talks in December that military action against Guyana would be avoided, recent images shared by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington indicate a notable buildup of Venezuelan forces.

Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of CSIS’s Americas program, remarked on the contradictory nature of the situation, highlighting that while Venezuelan diplomats engaged with Guyanese counterparts in discussions, the military conducted tank drills in close proximity to Guyana. This juxtaposition underscores what Hernandez-Roy describes as Maduro’s “duplicitous policy.”

Venezuela has long asserted its claim to the resource-rich Essequibo region, constituting two-thirds of Guyana’s territory. However, Maduro has intensified Venezuela’s claim to this disputed area in recent months, even garnering supposed popular support through a vote in December.

Despite diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the two nations, the aerial imagery reveals a stark reality of escalating militarization along the border. CSIS warns that such provocative actions by Venezuela increase the risk of miscalculation and loss of control over the situation.

The international dispute is currently under arbitration at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Nevertheless, Maduro seeks to circumvent this process and negotiate directly with Guyana, a move that complicates the resolution of the conflict.

Analysts speculate on Maduro’s motives, initially interpreting his saber-rattling as a domestic strategy to bolster support ahead of anticipated elections. However, there are indications that this aggressive posture may also serve to pressure Guyana into sharing revenue from recent oil discoveries.

Venezuela’s economic woes, despite its substantial oil reserves, add further complexity to the situation. Hernandez-Roy suggests that while Maduro’s actions may have originated from domestic concerns, the current strategy appears aimed at coercing concessions from Guyana.

Amidst growing regional tensions, Brazil has deployed additional troops to its borders with both Guyana and Venezuela. Furthermore, the United States has pledged to enhance Guyana’s defense capabilities with new aircraft, helicopters, military drones, and radar technology.

In response to the escalating situation, Guyanese officials plan to engage with leaders of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) to discuss a coordinated regional response to the crisis.