The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet so far, but officials in the British Virgin Islands are urging residents not to take the calm for granted.
Jasen Penn, Director of the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), said this early lull presents a valuable opportunity for the public to prepare for storms that may develop rapidly later in the season.
“If we look back, Beryl was an example of a system that went from a tropical depression to a hurricane in just 48 hours,” Mr. Penn said during an appearance on the Virgin Islands Voice programme. He noted that previous storms, including Hurricanes Irma and Maria, also underwent rapid intensification before impacting the region.
Mr. Penn attributed the lack of early-season storm activity in part to frequent incursions of Saharan dust, which has reduced atmospheric moisture and helped suppress tropical cyclone formation. However, he warned that those conditions are expected to change.
“Early season activity has been concentrated in the southern Caribbean,” he said. “But as the season progresses, changing wind patterns and ocean currents increase the likelihood of systems taking a northern track.”
In addition to meteorological developments, Mr. Penn pointed to a recent change in satellite monitoring capabilities. The United States has officially ended the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program, which had provided critical structural data to forecasters at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
“They assisted with gathering detailed data on storm intensity, location of the centre, and development,” Mr. Penn said, describing the satellites’ role. Although other tools — including the GOES satellites and Hurricane Hunter aircraft — remain in use, the loss of the older program could introduce a greater margin of error in forecasts, he added.
“All this should drive us to be even more rigorous in our efforts to prepare,” Mr. Penn said.
Residents are being encouraged to update emergency plans, assemble supply kits, and ensure access to multiple channels for receiving emergency alerts. For guidance on preparedness at home or at work, the public can contact the Department of Disaster Management at ddm@gov.vg or by calling 468-4200.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
