Caribbean Braces for Active 2025 Hurricane Season

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, June 1, and runs through November 30. Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) indicate an above-average season, with heightened activity anticipated across the Caribbean region.

NOAA projects 13 to 19 named storms, including 6 to 10 hurricanes, of which 3 to 5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). CSU’s forecast aligns closely, predicting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Several climatic factors contribute to the anticipated increase in storm activity. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea remain warmer than average, providing additional energy to fuel storm development. Additionally, the expected transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions is likely to reduce wind shear in the tropics, further facilitating storm formation and intensification.

For the Caribbean, the implications are significant. CSU estimates a 66% probability of at least one major hurricane tracking through the region this season, compared to the historical average of 47%.

In response to the heightened activity forecast, NOAA has implemented several enhancements to its forecasting and communication strategies. The National Hurricane Center will now issue forecasts and storm tracks up to 48 hours before a storm’s potential formation, allowing for earlier warnings. Updated storm cones will include inland warnings and nationwide inundation mapping to better visualize flood risks. New rip current risk maps will also be provided when tropical systems are present.

As the season begins, residents in hurricane-prone areas are advised to prepare accordingly. This includes assembling emergency supplies, reviewing evacuation plans, and staying informed through official channels. While forecasts provide an overview of expected activity, the specific paths and impacts of individual storms can vary, underscoring the importance of readiness and vigilance throughout the season.

For real-time updates and detailed forecasts, individuals are encouraged to monitor information from the National Hurricane Center and local emergency management agencies.