Early Wednesday morning, August 14, Ernesto was upgraded to a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center as it moved through the Atlantic Ocean north of Puerto Rico. The upgrade occurred around 11:00 AM local time when Ernesto’s maximum sustained winds reached 75 mph, as forecasters had predicted. The storm is expected to strengthen further, potentially becoming a major hurricane in the next couple of days.

As of 11:00 AM AST (1500 UTC), Hurricane Ernesto was positioned near latitude 20.5 North and longitude 67.6 West, approximately 175 miles (280 km) northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and around 835 miles (1340 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. The storm is currently moving northwest at 16 mph (26 km/h), with a turn toward the north-northwest and then north expected later today and tonight. The storm is forecasted to continue a generally northward motion at a slower pace through Saturday.

Ernesto’s maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts reported, and the storm’s minimum central pressure has dropped to 991 mb (29.27 inches), signalling further intensification. Hurricane-force winds now extend up to 35 miles (55 km) from the storm’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach out as far as 230 miles (370 km).

The forecast track indicates that Ernesto will continue to move away from Puerto Rico today, gradually shifting across the western Atlantic over the next few days. The hurricane is expected to approach Bermuda by Friday and Saturday, potentially strengthening further as it progresses.

For residents in the affected areas, the combination of heavy rainfall and strong winds presents a serious threat. The persistent rains are likely to lead to significant flooding, particularly in low-lying areas and regions already saturated from previous downpours. Flooding could become widespread and severe, prompting local authorities to urge residents to remain vigilant and prepared.

The U.S. and British Virgin Islands, along with Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra, are advised to continue monitoring the situation closely, heed all warnings, and take necessary precautions to protect life and property. As Ernesto advances, the situation remains fluid, and updates from the National Hurricane Center and local disaster management agencies will be critical for ensuring safety.

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The disturbance’s current trajectory suggests it will pass through the Leeward Islands tonight or Tuesday before moving closer to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night. Afterward, it is expected to shift away from Puerto Rico over the Western Atlantic by mid-week.

The NHC has assigned a high probability (90%) that the system will develop into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, with the same likelihood over the next seven days. The estimated minimum central pressure is currently 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

The latest update from the NHC at 11:00 AM AST reported that the disturbance is currently centered near latitude 15.1 N and longitude 55.6 W, moving west at a speed of approximately 26 mph. A shift towards the west-northwest is expected, with a slight decrease in forward speed over the coming days. Maximum sustained winds have reached 35 mph, with stronger gusts. The disturbance is likely to strengthen, potentially developing into a tropical depression later today or tonight, and further intensifying into a tropical storm as it continues its course.

The NHC has issued several key warnings and predictions related to the storm:

• Rainfall: The Virgin Islands can expect 4 to 6 inches of rain, which may lead to flooding in vulnerable areas.
• Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, bringing sustained winds and potentially dangerous gusts.
• Storm Surge: Cyclonic swells could elevate coastal water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal, creating hazardous waves and dangerous surf conditions.

Residents of the Virgin Islands are urged to make necessary preparations and stay informed through local weather updates as the storm approaches.

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