As of the latest advisory, Ernesto is positioned at 18.4°N latitude and 64.7°W longitude, approximately 20 miles (30 km) east of St. Thomas and about 90 miles (145 km) east of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Current Weather Conditions:

• Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 mph (100 km/h)
• Present Movement: West-northwest (WNW) at 18 mph (30 km/h)
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb (29.47 inches)

As Ernesto continues its path, residents of the Virgin Islands should brace for further deterioration in weather conditions. The storm is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it passes to the northeast of Puerto Rico later tonight.

Authorities are urging everyone to stay vigilant, adhere to safety advisories, and prepare for severe weather impacts.

Updates will be provided as more information becomes available.

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The storm has plunged the territory into darkness, with powerful gusts and substantial rainfall affecting the region.

Governor Daniel Pruce had previously activated the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) at Level 1, the initial monitoring phase in response to the approaching storm. Residents were advised to complete their storm preparations by this afternoon and to remain sheltered as Ernesto approached.

Ernesto is expected to bring severe weather overnight, including high wind gusts and continued heavy rainfall. At 5:00 PM AST (2100 UTC), the centre of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located approximately 45 miles east-southeast of Road Town, near latitude 18.0 North and longitude 64.1 West. The storm is currently moving towards the west-northwest at 18 mph (30 km/h) and is forecast to strengthen further over the next 24 hours.

The storm’s projected path indicates it will pass near or over the Virgin Islands this evening, moving just to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico tonight and into Wednesday. Ernesto is expected to continue over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda by Friday.

In addition to heavy rainfall, a storm surge is anticipated to raise water levels by one to three feet above normal tide levels, with large, destructive waves along the coast creating hazardous conditions. Life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents are also expected.

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) has highlighted the importance of stocking up on essential supplies and securing homes and properties. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services have issued a tropical storm warning for the Virgin Islands.

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The disturbance’s current trajectory suggests it will pass through the Leeward Islands tonight or Tuesday before moving closer to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night. Afterward, it is expected to shift away from Puerto Rico over the Western Atlantic by mid-week.

The NHC has assigned a high probability (90%) that the system will develop into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours, with the same likelihood over the next seven days. The estimated minimum central pressure is currently 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

The latest update from the NHC at 11:00 AM AST reported that the disturbance is currently centered near latitude 15.1 N and longitude 55.6 W, moving west at a speed of approximately 26 mph. A shift towards the west-northwest is expected, with a slight decrease in forward speed over the coming days. Maximum sustained winds have reached 35 mph, with stronger gusts. The disturbance is likely to strengthen, potentially developing into a tropical depression later today or tonight, and further intensifying into a tropical storm as it continues its course.

The NHC has issued several key warnings and predictions related to the storm:

• Rainfall: The Virgin Islands can expect 4 to 6 inches of rain, which may lead to flooding in vulnerable areas.
• Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, bringing sustained winds and potentially dangerous gusts.
• Storm Surge: Cyclonic swells could elevate coastal water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal, creating hazardous waves and dangerous surf conditions.

Residents of the Virgin Islands are urged to make necessary preparations and stay informed through local weather updates as the storm approaches.

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As of 8 a.m. on Saturday, the tropical wave, now officially named Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, was projected to become the third hurricane of the 2024 season. The NHC predicts that the system will develop into a tropical depression by early Monday morning and potentially intensify into Tropical Storm Ernesto shortly thereafter.

Currently moving west-northwest at 21 mph, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is located approximately 950 miles southeast of Antigua. It has sustained winds of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1010 millibars. The system’s expansive stretch of showers and thunderstorms has grown more organized, prompting a series of tropical storm watches across the Caribbean.

In response to the impending threat, several governments across the Caribbean have issued Tropical Storm Watches, signaling the potential for tropical storm conditions within 48 hours. The affected areas include Guadeloupe, St. Martin, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The Tropical Storm Watches highlight the growing concern for residents in these areas, who are advised to stay vigilant as the system advances. Interests in the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico are also encouraged to monitor the storm’s progress closely, with additional watches potentially being issued tonight or early Monday.

As Potential Tropical Cyclone Five continues on its west-northwest trajectory, it is poised to become Tropical Storm Ernesto in the coming days.

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The inaugural flight departed from V.C. Bird International Airport in Antigua at 11:30 a.m., carrying a delegation of dignitaries and media representatives. The launch was preceded by a brief opening ceremony where Prime Minister Gaston A. Browne of Antigua and Barbuda, along with other officials, expressed their pride and optimism for the future of LIAT 2020.

Formed in partnership with Air Peace, a Nigerian private airline established in 2013, LIAT 2020 aims to restore and enhance regional connectivity. The new entity emerges from the shadow of LIAT 1974 Ltd, which had been under administration since July 24, 2020.

LIAT 2020 begins operations with a fleet of seven aircraft, initially offering a limited schedule of three flights per week between Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, and Barbados. This strategic launch is part of a broader vision to rebuild a reliable inter-island transport network that is vital for the economic and social fabric of the Caribbean.

Earlier this year, it was announced that Air Peace would invest nearly US$65 million into the venture, with the government of Antigua and Barbuda contributing an additional US$20 million.

While LIAT 2020 has yet to schedule flights to the British Virgin Islands (VI), there is growing anticipation that the airline will soon expand its routes to include this key destination. The VI, currently facing challenges with regional airline services, stands to benefit significantly from LIAT 2020’s enhanced connectivity.

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